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Typical November Trading: Firm Beginning, Tepid Across Mid-Month, Rally to Close

As the top month of the year for S&P 500 (since 1950), Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 (since 1979) and second best for DJIA (since 1950) and NASDAQ (since 1971), November has historically and frequently been a solid month for equity bulls. In the most recent 21-year period, average gains have even been improving for DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000. However, strength has not been evenly spread across the entire month.

As you can see in the following seasonal chart based upon daily performance over the last 21-years, November has typically opened well with nice gains spanning the first four trading days. Following this move higher the major indexes have tended to trade sideways and modestly lower until the last seven trading days at which point, they have historically sprung back to life and surged higher to close out the month. If you missed our Seasonal MACD Buy signal in October and/or are looking for a dip to add to existing positions, November may provide that opportunity.

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