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Week Before Thanksgiving, DJIA up 19 of 28, but weaker lately

Next week is not only November’s monthly option expiration week, but it is also the last full week of trading before Thanksgiving. DJIA has a reasonably solid track record over the last 28 years, rising 19 times the week before Thanksgiving with a median gain of 0.41%. But the other major U.S. stock market benchmarks have not been as strong and there has been more weakness across the board recently. Since 2003 DJIA is up only 9 out of the last 18 years with a median loss of 0.09%.

S&P is up 16 of the last 28 years with a median gain of 0.24% and down 10 of the last 18, –0.16% median loss. NASDAQ is up 16 of the last 28 years with a median gain of 0.28% and down 9 of the last 18, +0.07% median gain. Russell 2000 is up 15 of the last 28 years with a median gain of 0.54% and down 10 of the last 18, –0.20% median loss. If weakness does manifest next week, it may be a good set up for the Thanksgiving trade of buying into weakness the week before Thanksgiving and selling into strength around the holiday and typical November end-of-month strength.

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