History of bear markets points to an October 2022 bottom

On Monday of this week DJIA fell into an official Ned Davis Research (NDR) bear market. This raises the question, “Where can we go from here?” In the table below we examine all the 13% DJIA declines after 145 days since 1948 and the subsequent action after. The four 30% Value Line Geometric reversal bear markets in 1987, 1990, 1998 and 2020 are included for reference.

Of the eighteen others only the two reached bottom at the 13%, 145-day decline, 1953 and 2016. Eight were followed by further declines of less than 10% and eight greater. Twelve bottomed out less than three months later and six dragged on for 6 months or more. The average additional decline was 12.4% over an average of 139 calendar days. Based upon DJIA’s close on June 13 and these averages, DJIA could ultimately find bottom around October 31, 2022, at 26732.13. This would represent a total bear market decline of 27.4% in 298 calendar days.