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Analysis of Coinbase trading volume shows the crypto investing story may be broken, Mizuho says

Trading volume on Coinbase historically has moved in tandem with the price of bitcoin, but that pattern may be breaking now, according to Mizuho. Like stocks, cryptocurrencies have been falling for the past six months, with small rebounds scattered throughout the year. Mizuho found trading volumes have continued to surge during the sell-offs, but they have “failed to impress” when crypto prices rise. The firm assessed volume trends on Coinbase between January 2021 and April 2022. What the analysts found suggests investors may be suffering from “crypto fatigue,” analyst Dan Dolev said in a note Wednesday. “Average daily trading volume on the COIN platform on Bitcoin down-days was 15% higher than volumes on Bitcoin up-days,” he said. “In recent months, however, down-day volumes are 42% higher than up-days, or nearly 3x vs. the prior ratio.” An early June spike in trading volume seems to be fading, Dolev said. Between June 9 and 16, bitcoin fell from $30,000 to $21,000, Mizuho found. Average daily trading volume in that window was $2.5 billion. Since then, daily volumes have averaged $1.9 billion, according to the firm’s analysis. “We encourage investors to tame expectations,” Dolev said. “COIN is still tracking 10-15% below 2Q consensus and ~30% below 1Q levels.” Mizuho has a $45 price target on Coinbase, which would be about 21% below where the stock closed Tuesday.

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