In the mid-1980s as the market began to evolve into a
tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the
outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. In anticipation of
positive results, over the last three trading days of June and the first nine
trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been
up 29 of the past 37 years with an average historical gain of 2.6%. This year
the rally may have begun early and could last until on or around July 14.
After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000,
NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with
three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite
solid over the last twelve years, up eleven times with a single mild 0.1% loss
in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 2.0% during the 12-day span.